International bioenergy trade - Scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

Jan 2007

This research was carried out between December 2004 and December 2007 as a part of the group project “The EU’s forest energy resources, market of energy technology and international bioenergy trade” coordinated by the Finnish Forest Research Institute (METLA). The research work was financed by the ClimBus Technology programme of the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation (TEKES).
Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and the second involved an international group. A heuristic, semi-structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes.
The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi-layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial aspects related the scenarios and foreseeing the scales and directions of biomass streams.

By: J. Heinimö, V. Pakarinen, V. Ojanen, T. Kässi (Lappeenranta Univ. of Technolog

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