Forecasting indirect land use effects of transportation projects

Dec 2007

One purpose of this report is to better inform current practice with useful research findings. Another is to guide practitioners about what approach to use when current guidebooks provide insufficient direction. The most appropriate choice will depend on the amount of change in land use that is initially anticipated, the planning context (rural through urban), the project’s complexity, the resources available for the study and other factors.
Chapter 2, Research Approach, briefly describes the sources used as background research for this report.
Chapter 3 first provides a refresher on definitions of the terminology of direct vs. indirect vs. cumulative effects etc. and then describes findings from a review of current guidebooks and interviews. Some guidebooks provide in-depth coverage of particular topics and, by noting these, Chapter 3 provides the practitioner with useful, specific references.
Chapter 4 on Applications is organized in the sequence of approaches and is the primary chapter in this report. The remaining sections of Chapter 4 discuss more resource-intensive land use forecasting techniques and should be read by anyone contemplating their use or those who are interested in understanding the full spectrum of techniques available.
Chapter 5 summarizes some of the limitations of this report and notes what kinds of work and research are particularly useful and necessary to advance the practice of documenting and analyzing indirect land use effects.

By: U. Avin (PB), R. Cervero (Uni.Calif.), T. Moore (ECONorthwest), C. Dorney (PB)

 
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