Indirect Land Use Change from increased biofuels demand - Comparison of models and results for marginal biofuels production from different feedstocks |
Aug 2010
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This study compares the ILUC results produced by different economic models for marginal increases in biofuel production from different feedstocks. The work is the result of a survey of marginal calculations launched by the JRC-IE during 2009, involving some of the best known models worldwide. The partial and full equilibrium models compared in this study are:
- AGLINK-COSIMO (from OECD)
- CARD (from FAPRI-ISU)1
- IMPACT (from IFPRI)
- G-TAP (from Purdue University)
- LEI-TAP (from LEI)
- CAPRI (from LEI)
An overview of the key modelling parameters of the models used for these calculations is presented in chapter 5.
The modellers were requested by JRC-IE to run scenarios corresponding as closely as possible to the following specification (e.g. marginal runs against existing baseline of the following scenarios):
A marginal extra ethanol demand in EU
B marginal extra biodiesel demand in EU
C marginal extra ethanol demand in US
D marginal extra palm oil demand in EU (for biodiesel or pure plant oil use)
The results from the different models and various scenarios are compared in this report in terms of hectares of ILUC, because all of the models produced data at that level. To enable direct comparison of the results reported by the modellers JRC-IE standardised the results to kHa per Mtoe biofuels (Million tonnes of oil equivalent).
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