Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Early release overview

Jan 2009

The AEO2009 reference case includes greater use of renewable energy than the AEO2008 reference case.
Total consumption of marketed renewable fuels—including wood, municipal waste, and biomass in the end-use sectors; hydroelectricity, geothermal, municipal waste, biomass, solar, and wind for generation in the electric power sector; ethanol for gasoline blending and biomass-based diesel in the transportation sector, of which 3.4 quadrillion Btu is included with liquids fuel consumption in 2030—grows by 3.3 percent per year in the reference case.
Although the situation is uncertain, the current state of the industry and EIA’s present view of the projected rates of technology development and market penetration of cellulosic biofuel technologies suggest that available quantities of cellulosic biofuels will be insufficient to meet the new RFS targets for cellulosic biofuels before 2022, triggering both waivers and a modification of applicable volumes, as provided in Section 211(o) of the Clean Air Act as amended by EISA2007. The modification of volumes reduces the overall target in 2022 from 36 billion credits to 29.8 billion credits in the AEO2009 reference case.
On a volumetric basis, ethanol use in the AEO2009 reference case grows from 6.5 billion gallons in 2007 to 29.6 billion gallons in 2030—about 20 percent of total gasoline consumption by volume and about 24 percent more than in the AEO2008 reference case. Ethanol use for gasoline blending grows to 12.2 billion gallons and E85 consumption to 17.5 billion gallons in 2030. The ethanol supply is produced from both corn and cellulose feedstocks, with corn accounting for 15.0 billion gallons and cellulose 12.6 billion gallons of ethanol production in 2030 (including both domestic and imported production). Both are eligible for RFS credits.
Other biofuels are produced domestically and imported, including some produced from corn that are ineligible for RFS credits. Biodiesel use increases to 1.9 billion gallons in 2030, or about 2.3 percent of total diesel consumption by volume. In addition, consumption of biomass-to-liquids (BTL) diesel grows to 3.6 billion gallons in 2030, or 4.8 percent of total diesel consumption by volume.

By: US Department of Energy

 
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