Agricultural outlook 2007-2016

Jan 2007

The Agricultural Outlook is a collaborative effort of the OECD in Paris and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations in Rome. Its main purpose is to produce an updated annual ten-year assessment of global commodity markets that includes analysis of recent developments and emerging issues, bringing together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both Organisations.
The report draws on the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organizations in providing a medium-term assessment of future prospects in the major world agricultural commodity markets. The report is published annually, as part of a continuing effort to promote informed discussion of emerging market and policy issues. This edition of the Agricultural Outlook offers an assessment of agricultural markets covering cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats, milk and dairy products over the period 2007 to 2016. It considers the expansion of the European Union, from twenty-five to twenty-seven member states and for the fist time includes explicit assumptions on biofuel production. The market assessments are based on a set of projections that are conditional on specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, agricultural and trade policies and production technologies; it also assumes average weather conditions. Using the underlying assumptions, the Agricultural Outlook presents a plausible scenario for the evolution of agricultural markets over the next decade and provides a yardstick or benchmark for the analysis of agricultural market outcomes that would result from alternative assumptions.
The projections for production, consumption, stocks, trade and prices described and analysed in this report cover the years 2007 to 2016. They are presented in the Statistical Annex, and can be viewed in more detail at the website www.agr-outlook.org. They reflect many specific assumptions concerning key external factors such as macroeconomic performance, agricultural and trade policies, and trends in technologies as well as consumer preferences. The projections do not take into account weather shocks and related impacts on crop yields and livestock production, nor are changes to agricultural and trade policies yet to be adopted by legislation or international agreements considered – anticipated or otherwise. Such deviations from these assumptions constitute some of the important uncertainties in the Outlook, the potential impacts of which are also assessed in this report.

By: OECD-FAO

 
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