Annual Energy Outlook 2008 with projections to 2030

Jun 2008

The Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO2008), prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030. The projections are based on results from EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).
The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO2008 reference case and comparing it with the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007) reference case. The Overview also includes a section that provides a comparison between the AEO2008 released in December and the current version. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” discusses evolving legislation and regulatory issues, including a summary of recently enacted legislation, such as EISA2007, and provides an update on the handling of aspects of previously enacted legislation, such as the loan guarantee program set up by Title XVII of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT2005). This section also provides a summary of State renewable fuel requirements and emissions regulations and a discussion of how selected Federal fuel taxes and tax credits are handled in AEO2008.
The “Issues in Focus” section includes discussion of a scenario under which electricity generation options other than natural gas are restricted and natural gas supply is limited; the competitive factors that influence imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG); and the implications of changing the basis for measuring heating and cooling degree-days. It also discusses the implications of uncertainty in energy project costs and the basis of the world oil price and production trends in AEO2008.
The “Market Trends” section summarizes the projections for energy markets. The analysis in AEO2008 focuses primarily on a reference case, low and high economic growth cases, and low and high energy price cases. Results from a number of other alternative cases are also presented, illustrating uncertainties associated with the reference case projections for energy demand, supply, and prices. Complete tables for the five primary cases are provided in Appendixes A through C. Major results from many of the alternative cases are provided in Appendix D.

By: US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

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