Review of EU's impact assessment of 10% biofuels on land use change

Jun 2008

This report highlights that it can not be concluded based on the Impact Assessments underlying the 10% target that a 10% biofuel target will not cause significant negative consequences resulting from land use change.
Furthermore the analysis on the outcomes of the Impact Assessments shows that about 50% of total LUC caused by a 10% biofuel target is likely to take place outside the EU.
Chapter 2 briefly reviews the IA’s finding on the biomass potential and concludes that the sustainable biomass potential is indeed sufficient for a 10% biofuel target in 2020.
However, the fact that this sustainable biomass potential exists, does not mean that the market will fill in the 10% target with this sustainable potential. Chapter 3 therefore discusses the analyses made on the mix of biofuels and feedstocks that will enter the market in 2020 to achieve certain biofuel targets. It will be shown that while the analysis itself seems robust, the outcomes of the IA in terms of land use and land use change have not been used to assess the risk of LUC outside the EU.
While Chapter 3 will show that the IA omits to assess the risk of LUC outside the EU, Chapter 4 analyses the statements made in the IA on the need for additional criteria on indirect LUC. It will be shown that these statements are based on incorrect reasoning and that the risk of indirect LUC remains high.
Finally Chapter 5 discusses how the IA has come to the conclusion that the 10% biofuel target will lead to significant GHG emission savings and will show that this analysis does not take into account the emissions from LUC.

By: B. Dehue, S. Meyer, W. Hettinga (Ecofys)

 
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