Status and outlook for biofuels, other alternative fuels and new vehicles

Jan 2008

The global energy solutions in general are unsustainable, and the situation is the worst in the transport sector, which is almost totally dependent on crude oil. The demand for energy in transportation is growing. A gap between supply and demand of transportation fuels can be foreseen. For sure, in a medium and long-term perspective our world of transportation will be going through major changes concerning energy sources, energy carriers, and end-use applications.
Some automotive technologies set strict requirements for fuel quality, and some fuels require a dedicated infrastructure. On the other hand, limitations on energy sources (feedstock), production processes, and infrastructure determine the availability of energy carriers (fuels), and all this has to be taken into account by automotive engineers.
Furthermore, these factors are not in harmony world-wide; the conditions vary from country to country, and policy actions can have strong impact on the development. In the coming years, we may see a variety of solutions - vehicles running on CNG or LPG, on ethanol or conventional bio-diesel, or on synthetic liquid fuels (based on natural gas, coal and biomass), and, of course, even on oil-based fuels (“the last drop of fossil fuels will be used in transportation”). The complicated fuel mix will be challenging.
This report provides an overview of today’s energy situation, and outlines various future transportation energy prospects. Based on the available data, an evaluation of the different engine/fuel options is carried out to summarize possible future solutions. The focus of this report is on advanced fuel and advanced vehicle technologies.
In this report biofuels are analyzed mainly from the end-use perspective, and no detailed analysis of the production potential, global logistics, and raw material availability are included.
In 2004–2007 energy prices have risen very rapidly, especially in the case of crude oil. This makes cost comparisons for alternative technologies very difficult, as the targets are moving constantly. Higher energy prices should in principle favor alternative solutions, but this has not been the case as the prices of, e.g., grain and vegetable oils have increased as well. Only very recently there was considerable excitement about biofuels.
Now a backlash can be seen, with increasing concerns about the sustainability of producing large amounts of conventional biofuels (i.e., ethanol and biodiesel from edible oil). Correspondingly, hydrogen and fuel cells have lost some of their enchantment.

By: N. Nylund, P. Aakko-Saksa, K. Sipilä (VTT)

 
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