A core aim of this study was to examine the indirect effects of biofuels policy, particularly UK and EU policies.
The work is divided into a series of separate but connected studies. These studies examined various aspects of the potential indirect effects of biofuels on land use change and GHG emissions. The work was in the form of a review and analysis of available data. Scenarios were developed to allow examination of current volume based targets and hypothetical GHG reduction ones and to ensure the studies were all based on the same scenario analysis. A likely feedstock mix was developed to allow quantification of tonnages required. Data on yield projections for relevant crops were examined under three scenarios and these data were combined with the target scenarios to provide an indication of land requirements for biofuels in 2020 for each scenario. The scenarios were also tested at different biofuel target levels and for the influence of the use of co-products for animal feed on projected land use.
A number of key uncertainties are known to influence biomass resource potential. These include: improvement of agricultural management, choice of crops, food demands and human diet; use of degraded land; competition for water; efficiency of water use; climate change etc. (WAB 2008). These factors could not be modelled in the timescale of this study and were examined by reference to the literature.
In addition various key papers have recently highlighted the GHG emission consequences of the indirect impacts of biofuels, notably Searchinger (2008), Fargione (2008) and Crutzen (2007). These papers were reviewed by members of the study team to examine the uncertainty of the underlying assumptions and whether or not the findings stand up to scrutiny.
This report synthesises the results of all of the studies managed by AEA. The key findings of these studies are summarised below.

By: AEA Energy & Environment

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