Land use change can be determined according to several methods including a) conducting a census, b) using economic indicators, and c) using remote sensing. Several economic models (global equilibrium models such as GTAP) use land rent value as a proxy for land use change. We believe that remote sensing provides the second most accurate method for land use change studies next to conducting a census.
The USDA uses satellite data combined with survey data to determine their Crop-Production Report. Furthermore, future land use studies related to corn ethanol may utilize satellite based data sets instead of the land rent assumptions and combine these data sets with national and global economic models.
The present study also utilizes remote sensing combined with survey data. However, in contrast to economic modelling the present study determines corn-ethanol related land use changes from the “bottom-up”: by carefully examining changes to each acre of land in the vicinity of a selected ethanol plant.
The ethanol plant is the Illinois River Energy Center (IRE), located in Rochelle Illinois, about 80 miles west of Chicago. IRE produces about 58 million gallons per year with an expansion underway to double capacity. The plant started operation in December 2006.
Therefore, the time horizon for the land use analysis spans the years 2005 through 2007.
The study attempts to determine if conversion of non-agricultural land to corn (corn extensification) occurred around IRE and if IRE is its likely cause. Secondly, the study attempts to determine if conversion of non-corn crop to corn (corn intensification) occurred and if IRE is its likely cause. In addition to land use change, the present study also examines the land carbon balance from IRE corn ethanol production. By using remote sensing for this type of “bottom-up” analyses the present study is able to determine the possibilities and limitations of remote sensing for other corn ethanol related land use studies.

By: S. Mueller (Univ. of Illinois), K. Copenhaver (Institute for Tech Development)

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