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Modeling development and emission scenario analysis in China |
Jan 2006
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By collaboration with international research teams, Integrated Policy Assessment Model for China was developed step by step. One of major research activities of IPAC is to develop energy and emission scenarios for China. In order to describe future possible GHG emission trajectories in both of nonintervention and intervention terms and the costs of responses for GHG emission reduction, various emission scenarios must be analyzed to answer questions posed by researchers and policymakers. Over the next hundred years, global socioeconomic development may progress in various ways. The developing countries, with the majority of the world’s population, may experience high economic growth, making them a major growth center in the global economy, which already occurred in the Asia-Pacific region. Many developing countries share problems that arise from rapid industrialization, population growth, and concentration of people in cities.
Many emissions scenarios have already been quantified or published. However, very few of these scenarios have been explicitly analyzed from the viewpoint of future alternative development path in developing regions. Only some scenarios have clarified the relationship between development patterns and emissions at the global level.
Moreover, the analysis of intervention scenarios is limited. In order to contribute to the analysis for both nonintervention and intervention emission scenarios,the authors developed the AIM-Linkage model. A group of nonintervention emissions was quantified based on the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and reported. The paper discusses the quantification of intervention scenarios based on the non-intervention emission scenarios by the AIM-Linkage model.
ERI IPAC modeling team worked on following activities:
- Designed the model framework for application on China energy scenario.
- Modeling framework for global mitigation scenario.
- Modeling analysis for Beijing Transport Scenario and China Transport Scenario.
IPAC modeling team started to join international and domestic research activities.
By: J. Kejun, H. Xiulian, L. Qiang, Z. Songli, Z. Xing (Energy Research Institute)
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