Ethanol production from sugarcane (mainly in Brazil) on the basis of “1^st generation technology” (22.5 billion liters per year in 3.4 million hectares) replaces 1% of the gasoline used in the world today and is highly competitive in economic terms with ethanol produced from other crops in the US and Europe. In this paper the potential for sugarcane ethanol expansion is discussed from two angles:
i. productivity gains which would allow greater production in the same area and
ii. geographical expansion to larger areas.
The potential of “1^st generation technology” for the production of ethanol from sugarcane is far from being exhausted. There are gains in productivity of approximately a factor of two from genetically modified varieties and a geographical expansion by a factor of 10 of the present level of production in many sugar producing countries. The replacement of 10% of the gasoline used in the world by ethanol from sugarcane seems possible before “2^nd generation technologies” reaches technological maturity and possibly economic competitiveness.

download this document:    350 kb