The Renewable Energy Directive (as far as biofuels and bioliquids are concerned) and the Fuel Quality Directive (as far as biofuels are concerned) require the Commission to submit to Parliament and Council a report with two components:
(a) "reviewing the impact of indirect land-use change on greenhouse gas emissions";
(b) "addressing ways to minimise that impact".
This paper is part of the work of the Commission services in preparing the first of these components. It draws on more than 150 contributions related to the topic. It is hereby made available for comments from interested parties.
The literature review concentrates on comparing studies’ methodological and data choices rather than their results.
The land use change modelling exercises reviewed are the following:
- AGLINK-COSIMO (for the European Commission)
- AGLINK/OECD
- BLUM
- CAPRI (for the European Commission)
- CARB
- Dumortier et al.
- EPA
- ESIM (for the European Commission)
- GLOBIOM
- Hertel et al.
- IFPRI (for the European Commission)
- IIASA (for OFID)
- Keeney and Hertel
- Kim et al.
- Kløverpris et al.
- LEITAP/ALTERRA (for the European Commission)
- LEITAP/Banse et al.
- Lywood/Ensus
- O'Hare et al.
- Searchinger et al.
- Taheripour et al.
- Tyner et al.
It will never be possible to physically observe indirect land use change. It will never be possible, looking forward, to say that the introduction of a biofuel policy will lead to the conversion of a particular, identified piece of land. It will never be possible, looking back, to say that the introduction of a biofuel policy was the cause of a particular, identified piece of land being converted. It follows that the assessment of the impact of land use change requires the use of modelling.
Different modelling approaches can be used. This paper focuses on "scenario analysis", which asks what the land use change impact of biofuels is "likely" to be under different scenarios. Drawing on a foundation of data, scenario analyses compare a baseline (including a baseline scenario with limited biofuel promotion/use, and a set of baseline assumptions) and a policy scenario (with promotion of biofuels). They use a model to do this. The model is used to calculate how the scenarios differ in terms of:
- quantity of crops produced;
- quantity of land converted for crop production;
- types of land converted;
- carbon stock changes from land conversion;
- overall greenhouse gas impact.
Each of the underlined terms is the subject of a chapter in the paper.

By: European Commission, DG Energy

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